The Show Notes #6: What’s Next for CJ Abrams?

Washington Nationals shortstop CJ Abrams has a style of play that perfectly encapsulates modern baseball yet it simultaneously reminds you of athletic and versatile middle infielders from past eras.

Introduction

Washington Nationals shortstop CJ Abrams is among the most intriguing Black middle infielders in MLB under 25 years old. The Alpharetta, Georiga native is another young, talented Black position player from the Greater Atlanta area who has established himself in MLB, a part of a group that includes Michael Harris II, Lawrence Butler, Jordan Walker, and Will Benson. The sixth overall pick in a 2021 draft class that was deep with position player talent on the high school and college fronts, he was later traded to the Washington Nationals along with five other players in exchange for Juan Soto and Josh Bell.

He was ranked as a top prospect throughout his entire time in the minors, flashing a combination of contact ability and speed from the shortstop position. Abrams played in only 80 games outside of the Arizona Complex League because of a broken leg/knee ligament damage and the COVID-19 pandemic canceling the 2020 season. Despite being rushed through the upper minors by the Padres front office he performed at a level that was well above average. He went .296/.363/.420 in 183 plate appearances at Double-A in 2021 and hit .310/.360/.480 in 38 games at Triple-A during 2022.

He made his MLB debut on April 8th, 2022 after making San Diego’s 25-man roster directly out of Spring Training before the 2022 MLB season. He was traded from San Diego to Washington in early August, a little over halfway through the season. He played in 90 MLB games during 2022, struggling on both sides of the ball but showing flashes of his potential. He went .246/.280/.324 across 302 plate appearances with a 72 wRC+ and .604 OPS. Abrams made 13 errors at shortstop in only 618.2 defensive innings. He had the fifth-worst DRS amount and the 13th-lowest UZR/150 total out of 31 shortstops with at least 600 defensive innings during the 2022 MLB season.

2023 MLB Season

CJ Abrams took a sizeable leap forward in every facet of his game during 2023, establishing himself as the full-time shortstop and primary table setter on the Washington Nationals’ 25-man roster for the rest of the decade. He went .245/.300/.412 with 28 doubles, six triples, and 18 home runs. With the 12th highest ISO and the 9th lowest strikeout rate amongst qualified shortstops for the 2023 season, he grew into a blend of power and contact that makes him an uncommon offensive commodity in comparison to others in his position group.

He quelled some concerns about his viability on the infield dirt, showing more consistency with his hands and a recalibrated internal clock that allowed him to convert more chances into outs. Abrams may have eclipsed the 20 error mark, but his subtle improvements that can be spotted with the eye test and the advanced metrics both support his presence on the left side of the middle infield.

The 23-year-old has quickly proved that he is one of the most productive baserunners in baseball, not just one of the sport’s best base stealers. Speed was one of the carrying tools in his profile as a prospect and it has directly translated over during Abrams’ transition to the majors.

Hitting

CJ Abrams has a very simple, quiet, and quick left-handed swing. He stands upright in the batter’s box with a slightly open stance and his hands held chin high. He waits for the pitch with a slight rock of the bat before starting his swing with a slight foot lift and then following through. The 23-year-old shortstop fully harnesses his athleticism when swinging, displaying an elite ability to rotate his midsection to generate bat speed.

He is an extremely aggressive hitter, owning the 26th-highest swing rate outside of the strike zone (O-Swing) and the 57th-highest swing rate outside the strike zone (Z-Swing) for 168 position players with at least 450 plate appearances during the 2023 MLB season. His swing is geared for hitting line drives and fly balls up the middle and to his pull side.

His bat-to-ball skills allow him to make something of his assertive approach, owning an average swinging strike rate to go with Z-Contact and O-Contact rates (contact %’s inside & outside the strike zone)that are somewhere in the small void between average and slightly above-average. His 19% strikeout rate is below the MLB average of 22%, per Baseball Reference.

His 87 mph average exit velocity for the 2023 season was in the 16th percentile but his 112 maximum exit velocity shows that he has above-average to plus raw power despite only being 6’2’’ and weighing around 195 pounds. Cutting down on his tendency to swing and focusing on being more selective might offer huge incentives. On the other hand, trying to alter Abrams from who he is could make him unplayable. His swing-heavy approach directly correlates with why his average exit velocity is so low relative to his maximum exit velocity.

Abrams struggles against four-seam fastballs and sliders but has fared better against cutters, sinkers, curveballs, and changeups. He has been very susceptible to left-handed pitchers thus far, posting a .759 OPS versus right-handed pitchers versus a .466 OPS versus left-handers for his career. For Abrams to take the offensive leap he is capable of, he will have to drastically improve against left-handed pitching or risk becoming a platoon bat.

Fielding

While CJ Abrams has more than enough range to reach balls put in play because of his elite foot speed, his hands are inconsistent when attempting to snag groundballs and his reads on flyballs on the infield and shallow outfield can be shaky as well. His transfers on slash-n-dash attempts and when there is traffic on the bases can be slow and/or sloppy. Even with his internal clock’s improvement he still rushes sometimes and forces himself into mistakes. A large amount of his throwing errors happen because his lack of arm strength forces him to rush through his progressions.

On the other hand, he has shown the ability to play defense at an acceptable level for prolonged periods. A large majority of the metrics that track every decision a player has made while playing defense have Abrams labeled as a passable defender in some areas with red flags appearing such as a lack of arm strength and range. Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating have Abrams graded as an above-average defensive shortstop while MLB’s Outs Above Average has him graded as a poor defender. All in all, time will tell how he performs defensively as he accumulates more defensive innings.

Baserunning

As mentioned before, Abrams is already one of MLB’s most productive baserunners. His 47 stolen bases (on a 92% success rate) were fourth in MLB and his 9.1 BsR was third in MLB per FanGraphs. Only getting caught four times during the 2023 season, he is one of 24 players in MLB history to steal 40 bases in a season while getting caught five or fewer times. He is in a prestigious group that includes a multitude of renowned base stealers such as Ichiro Suzuki, Davey Lopes, Tim Raines, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, and Mike Trout.

Conclusion

CJ Abrams reminds me of a cross between Paul Molitor and Robin Yount while being two to three inches taller and being a little stronger/faster. He possesses a similar twitch and a sure future up the middle combined with a bat that has contact and power. He flew through the minors and started his MLB career at a young age in a somewhat similar fashion to the Milwaukee infielders as well. The Nationals front office hit a grand slam by making him the MLB-ready centerpiece in the Juan Soto deal.

While he is a productive player in his current form, I believe this is Abrams’ floor and that he has the potential to take a massive leap forward. In an era of baseball where there is an unprecedented amount of middle infield talent, the Nationals’ young shortstop has a tangible chance to be one of the best shortstops of his generation. He is a mixture of old-school tendencies with modern flair, personifying the baseball heritage that stretches back to Negro Leagues shortstops such as John Henry “Pop” Lloyd and Willie “The Devil” Wells.

Further Reading