The Show Notes #5: Delving Into Bo Naylor's Rookie Season

Drafted by Cleveland in the first round of the 2018 MLB Draft directly out of high school, Bo Naylor put together an impressive rookie season that deserves a thorough breakdown.

Introduction

Founded in 1906 as one of the American League’s charter franchises, the Cleveland Guardians’ history with catchers is somewhat bare when compared to other teams. Yes, there have been individuals like Ray Fosse, Sandy Alomar Jr., Victor Martinez, Yan Gomes, and Roberto Perez. But when looking at the bigger picture, the organization has an abysmal track record of acquiring and developing homegrown catchers through the draft and international signing period. They’ve been slightly better at identifying and trading for backstops from other teams who have made notable contributions in a Cleveland uniform but the point remains.

Jamaican-Canadian backstop Bo Naylor has put together an impressive rookie campaign during the 2023 MLB season. The .237/.341/.446 slash line across 217 plate appearances in 63 games and a 12% caught-stealing rate on 58 attempts by opposing baserunners may be red flags to some and rightfully so. But when doing a deep dive into the statistics and looking at the tape, he has displayed plenty of value and is just scratching the surface. I think it would be pretty safe to say that performing near or at his ceiling while staying healthy would make Bo Naylor the greatest catcher in Guardians history.

He was drafted in the first round of the 2018 MLB Draft by Cleveland out of a high school in Mississauga, Ontario, Canada. The 22-year-old’s professional career began with a 33-game stint in the Arizona Complex League during the 2018 MiLB season that was impressive enough for the Cleveland brain trust to put him on a fast track through the minors for a high school catcher. The next year Naylor would leap to full-season Low-A, where he posted double-digit doubles, triples, and home runs in just 107 games played.

With the COVID-19 pandemic canceling the 2020 MiLB season, Naylor spent his time at Cleveland’s designated site honing his skills as best he could without live game action. Upon returning to MiLB during the 2021 season, the then 21-year-old catcher was assigned to Double-A where he struggled on both sides of the ball. Many professional scouts, notable individuals, and prominent organizations throughout the prospect industry thought the other shoe had dropped and the chances of him figuring it out were slim.

During the 2022 MiLB season, Naylor bounced back to have one of the greatest all-around seasons by a catcher in the upper minors during the 21st century. He went .263/.392/.496 with 26 doubles, 21 home runs, and 20 steals while throwing out 32% of the 71 opposing runners who attempted to steal. He immediately shot back up prospect boards and firmly established himself as the most intriguing option for the Guardians primary catcher of the mid to late 2020s.

Triple-A Columbus (April - June)

Bo Naylor dominated Triple-A during the 2023 MiLB season, going .253/.393/.498 with 12 doubles and 12 home runs across 270 plate appearances in 60 games. The most impressive facet of his offensive performance was a 0.94 BB/K ratio on an 18% walk rate and 19% strikeout rate. His 123 wRC+ was fifth out of 90 qualified catchers in all three Triple-A leagues with at least 100 plate appearances.

The rule changes that implemented a 20-second pitch clock, increased the size of the bases, and limited pitchers to two throws toward a base when a runner is on made it exponentially harder for catchers to throw runners out. Naylor’s caught-stealing percentage plummeted from 29% in 41 attempts across 494.2 innings at Triple-A in 2022 to 17% in 66 attempts across 382 innings during the 2023 MiLB season.

2023 MLB Season (June - September)

Called up in the middle of June, Bo Naylor has taken a handful of steps forward on both sides of the ball each month while showing tantalizing flashes of what his peak could look like. He has put together an impressive rookie season, especially when taking into account that he is a catcher. His strengths and carrying tools stand out and have given him a stable foundation to build his identity as a major leaguer. There is a clearer view of his weaknesses and which facets of his game could use improvement.

Hitting

Naylor at Triple-A in 2023: .253/.393/.498, 12 doubles, 13 home runs, 19% K rate, 18% BB rate, 123 wRC+

Naylor at MLB in 2023: .238/.344/.460, 12 doubles, 10 home runs, 22% K rate, 13% BB rate, 123 wRC+

First Half OPS: .562 Second Half OPS: .891

Bo Naylor is a left-handed batter that falls into the three true outcomes archetype. He stands in the batter’s box with an open stance, using a medium-sized leg kick. He keeps his hands chin high and quietly moves them into position as he goes to swing. His swing produces a majority of balls put in play to the pull side and up the middle. He hits flyballs at a very high rate, with half of his total balls put in play being flyballs.

His average exit velocity is 87 mph and his maximum exit velocity is 109 mph for the 2023 season. Naylor’s above-average power and the high frequency with which he hits flyballs are two complimentary traits that allow him to accrue extra-base hits at a high rate. His .222 Isolated Power(ISO) is ninth for his position out of 58 qualified catchers with at least 150 plate appearances in 2023.

He has a feel for hitting the ball where it is pitched and letting the natural loft in his swing combined with his above-average raw power do all the work. An example is his first career MLB home run to left field at Kansas City’s Kaufmann Stadium, one of the worst ballparks for left-handed hitters to try and hit home runs because of the gigantic outfield.

His approach at the plate is advanced, displaying a keen eye for resisting the urge to swing at pitches outside of the strike zone and waiting for something in the strike zone that he can handle. Out of 58 qualified catchers with at least 150 plate appearances Naylor has the 12th-lowest Swing %, which shows his selectivity.

He combines that with above-average contact ability for his position, sporting the 11th-highest Contact % and 10th-lowest Swinging Strike %. He has the eighth-highest on-base percentage, the highest BB%, and the fourth-highest BB/K ratio as well.

One major weakness that has shown in Naylor during his short stint in MLB is his ability to make contact with four-seam fastballs. He has struggled against offerings throughout the zone. Courtesy of MLB’s Baseball Savant, the chart below shows his Weighted On-Base Average(wOBA) in different quadrants of the strike zone for the 2023 season.

Naylor has fared much better versus sinkers/two-seam fastballs than four-seamers, albeit in a much smaller sample size. He has the majority of his success versus sliders and changeups, outperforming his expected numbers across the board.

Another potential red flag in Naylor’s profile as a hitter is the subject of his platoon splits. He has dominated RHPs during his first extended period in MLB, hitting .248/.358/.510 against them in 2023. On the other hand, his paltry slash line of .200/.289/.275 versus lefties cannot be ignored or glossed over even when taking into account that this is his first time facing MLB-caliber LHPs.

His platoon splits across MiLB’s lower levels showed above-average performance versus RHPs & LHPs with reverse splits, so the possibility he will take steps forward versus LHPs in MLB is pretty tangible. While LHPs in MLB and the upper levels of MiLB are that much better, Bo Naylor is talented enough that he may adapt and improve.

Fielding

I was one of the very few individuals who had an above-average grade on Naylor’s overall defensive ability during his MiLB career, so his current level of performance in MLB based on the data is not surprising to me. Many individuals and groups throughout the prospect-sphere had him graded anywhere from slightly below average to on the verge of moving off the position.

Naylor has displayed above-average framing skills, moderate blocking capabilities, and decent game-calling while struggling with his capacity to control the running game. Granted, this is a rookie catcher making his debut as an MLB team’s primary backstop during drastic rule changes that have inflated stolen bases by a notable amount. Even with these developments, the 22-year-old catcher has shown that he has a long future behind the plate to go with a floor and ceiling that are much higher than most realize.

Receiving/Framing

• Scouting reports said that Naylor would be a below-average framer in MLB, but the plethora of different statistics we have access to say otherwise. He is tied for 20th out of 73 qualified catchers with at least 150 defensive innings in FanGraphs’s framing metric.

• He is 15th out of 102 qualified catchers in Baseball Prospectus’s Framing Runs statistic and 13th in Baseball Prospectus’s Called Strikes Above Average statistic.

• He is 21st out of 62 qualified catchers for Baseball Savant’s Catcher Framing Runs and his Strike Rate is above average. Baseball Savant puts him in the 72nd percentile for his framing.

Game Calling

Bo Naylor’s game calling has been average to begin his MLB career, which is a sign of future success as long as it doesn’t get any worse than average. His 4.31 cERA and 4.70 cRA9 are right below the 2023 averages, per Baseball Reference’s Player Advanced Fielding - C. With the 2023 season drawing to a close, keeping track of Naylor’s game-calling statistics as he accumulates more defensive innings in MLB during future seasons is paramount. The Defensive Runs Saved metric’s cERA component gives Naylor a -2 and has him ranked toward the bottom of his position group.

Blocking

Naylor has been a slightly below-average blocker to begin his career, whether looking at advanced metrics such as Baseball Savant’s Catcher Blocking Leaderboard or when reviewing the tape on wild pitches and passed balls with Naylor in the game. Time will tell whether he improves in this facet of catching or not under the tutelage of Sandy Alomar Jr., the Cleveland Guardians catching coach.

Throwing Runners Out

Naylor’s lack of control over the opposing run game has been his most glaring flaw during the 2023 season. While his ability to throw runners out was one of his strengths in years past and he possesses above-average arm strength at his position, problems with his throwing mechanics in combination with the new rules have created the perfect storm of issues around stolen base prevention.

• Per Baseball Savant, Naylor has the 25th-quickest pop time to second base out of 81 catchers to have made at least 5 throws. His average exchange is the 39th-quickest and his average velocity on throws is the 25th-fastest.

• He’s allowed 55 stolen bases on 63 stolen attempts, good for an abysmal 13% caught-stealing rate. He has been one of the five worst catchers at catching runners from purely a percentage standpoint.

Baserunning

Bo Naylor is easily the best baserunner in his entire position group, owning a combination of athleticism and baserunning acumen. He swiped five bags without getting caught in 89 stolen base opportunities. His 27.4 Sprint Speed is easily in the 75th percentile for his position group.

He has the second-fastest home plate to first-base time for qualified catchers. His 2.8 BsR is the first out of 68 qualified catchers to have recorded at least 100 PAs. He currently leads the second-place Will Smith by 1.1 points despite logging 324 fewer plate appearances.

Conclusion

Arbitration eligible in 2026 and set to be a free agent in 2029, I feel justified in saying that Bo Naylor should be a candidate for an extension along with his older brother and teammate Josh. He has consistently displayed intangibles such as perseverance, intelligence, maturity, leadership, and mental/physical durability.

He went on a fast track through MiLB as a high school catcher without missing a beat, impressing those around him. He bounced back from an abysmal 2021 season to make history during the 2022 season. He enrolled in courses to learn Spanish and went above and beyond to teach himself in his free time as well by using YouTube. All these traits are what you want to see in a catcher who was selected in the first round with the idea of being an anchor for a team for years.

He has a legitimate chance to develop into the rarest and most valuable archetype for his position, which is a five-tool catcher. During his MiLB career and short time in MLB, he has flashed all of the requisite tools and skills to reach that unique all-around peak blending power, speed, and defense that we’ve only seen from catchers like J.T. Realmuto, Pudge Rodríguez, Jason Kendall, and Russell Martin.