The Show Notes #26: Tink Hence Is Running Out of Time

Time is running out for Tink Hence to prove himself as a starting pitcher. His value as a trade chip is at a nadir, but if he shows any sign of bouncing back he would be an intriguing piece to acquire

The St. Louis Cardinals have a strong reputation amongst Black baseball fans for drafting and developing Black players, but I don’t think we ever came to the collective realization of how slanted that history is towards position players. In case you were wondering, yes I did comb through the Cardinals draft records. I stumbled upon names like Ronnie Williams, Tyrell Jenkins, and LaCurtis Mayes during my time looking for Black starters who have been affiliated with the Cardinals organization. While the legend of Bob Gibson looms large over the long and storied history of the Cardinals, the organization has had very few Black starting pitchers wear the iconic jersey that features the two red birds perched on a baseball bat. Bill Greason got a cup of coffee as the first Black player for St. Louis in 1954. Sam Jones pitched two above-average seasons as a member of the Cardinals’ starting rotation during the late 1950s. The aforementioned Gibson dominated MLB during the 1960s and 1970s. Jack Flaherty spent time with the franchise before being traded to Baltimore.

Drafted in the 2nd round of the shortened 2020 MLB Draft, 23-year-old Tink Hence could carry this barren legacy towards relevancy for the Redbirds. He was one of the youngest eligible players in his respective draft class and forewent his commitment to the University of Arkansas to begin his professional baseball career after graduating high school. His arsenal is headlined by a lively four-seam fastball that sits in the mid-90s and reaches 97 mph. His slider is a dynamic two-plane breaker that sits in the mid-80s and his changeup is an offering with heavy armside fade that plays well off the flat shape of his four-seam fastball. He also has an effective curveball that can garner swings and misses as well.

The right-handed starter from Pine Bluff, Arkansas has performed well from a statistical standpoint but has struggled with injuries throughout his professional career. From the outside looking in, the obvious answer for Hence’s lack of availability up to this point of his professional career is his undersized frame. The list of slim, hard-throwing starting pitchers who have had their careers derailed by issues with health is long, and it seems like the 23-year-old is on a trajectory to it. Think of Tim Lincecum, and how his body just fell apart after years of pitching with noisy mechanics that were only feasible because of his absurd athleticism. Triston McKenzie’s fall from grace despite having one of the cleanest and repeatable deliveries in his age group is a more recent example.

I think St. Louis’s caution with Hence’s pitch count early in his career has played a part in why he has not developed the necessary arm/shoulder strength to stay healthy. It has also prevented him from learning how to navigate deep into games and face a lineup more than two times, which could stunt his growth even further. He’s never thrown more than 100 innings in a season and has only recorded four starts with more than 90 pitches, which is asinine for developing a starting pitcher. The reliever risk was obvious from the day he was drafted, but Hence has an arsenal that would probably play up in a bullpen role. It will be interesting to see if the Cardinals are committed to Hence remaining a starter when the 2026 season rolls around. It also remains to be seen if he tries to prevent injury by bulking up and adding more muscle to his frame. Other options on the table include making tweaks to his mechanics or changing his arm slot to put less stress on certain parts of the body.

Conclusion

Time is running out for Tink Hence to prove himself as a starter unless there is another organization who sees something that the Cardinals don’t. His value as a trade chip is at a nadir, but if he shows any sign of bouncing back during the 2026 season he would be an intriguing prospect to sell high on if something worthwhile in the correct scenario is coming back to St. Louis in return. Hence has the talent to be the PTBNL who turns into a valuable player on a team’s 25-man roster, and that makes the risk of trading him so high even with his injury history. One general manager’s injury-riddled top prospect is another general manager’s shrewd acquisition for pennies on the dollar. No one wants to be the former, and everyone wants to be the latter.